couple sitting side by side near panel radiator

Long-Term Care Spending Will Grow Greatly

Although it is not the main driver of rising health expenditure, population aging will be a significant source of pressure on government budgets in other areas. Age pensions will, in some countries, be part of the problem. In the United States, for example, Congressional Budget Office projections suggest that government age pension spending will rise […]

Population Aging & Health Spending

There is a widespread notion that demographic aging will be the most important single factor driving health expenditure up over coming decades – or that, at a minimum, its impact on spending will be as great as any of the other forces which may be at work to increase spending. This is, however, wrong. Why […]

Bioscience Revolution To Drive Health Spending Up

In Bigger Government: The Future of Government Expenditure in Advanced Economies I show that government spending is set to increase greatly over the coming three decades in all advanced countries because of powerful external forces and pressures which will operate irrespective of the political orientations of governments. Overshadowing everything else will be very large long-term […]

“Bigger Government” Podcast

To mark the publication today of Bigger Government: The Future of Government Expenditure in Advanced Economies, I am releasing a two episode podcast. The podcast is can be heard by clicking on this link, or may be heard on any of the main podcast directories (Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Castbox, Stitcher, Listen Notes etc). Episode 1 […]

Is Austerity to Blame?

In many advanced countries, the parlous condition of public hospitals – due largely to inadequate funding – has been thrown into sharp relief by the coronavirus crisis. The United States, France and the United Kingdom are extreme examples. In these and other countries, many public hospitals were grossly stressed even before the pandemic, with patients […]

No, Increasing Poverty and Precarity Won’t Force Spending Up

There are many who think that income support – welfare benefits such as unemployment benefits, income supplements and tax credits for the working poor, and child benefits – is a key area where governments will be compelled to spend much more over coming decades. They consider that changes in the way the economy works will […]

black and gray stethoscope

Health Care: The Biggest Growth Area

By far the most important reason why government expenditure can be expected to increase greatly over coming decades is growing health expenditure. There are strong grounds to expect that government health expenditure will grow by at least 4 percent of GDP in all advanced nations in the period up to 2050. Although everyone is conscious […]

10 and one 10 us dollar bill

Why Government Will Get Bigger

Government spending has dramatically increased everywhere in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the savage recession which it has triggered. In the wake of this, the debate about the size of the state has gained new urgency. However, nearly all of the spending is – and should be – purely temporary. The much more important […]